Abstract: In the present paper,the Weibull distribution function Y=100×[1-exp-X/b^c]} was applied to describe the probability distribution in time of eggs laid by BPH adult female, the percentage of progressive instar with the development of the nymphal inst ars,and the accumulatively hatching rate. The Rayleigh density function Y=A·X·exp (-X²/2H²)} was applied to describe the survival rate of the nymphal instars.On the basis of biological parameters obtained from foregoing function, the forecast model of BPH field population was established,and through the test of historical date,the result indicated that the simulated value of model correspond with the observed value basically.

Key words: Weibull distribution function, Rayleigh density function, Nilaparvata lugens, Forcast model

摘要： 本文研究应用 Weibull 分布函数Y=100×[1-exp(-X/b)^c]描述褐飞虱雌虫产卵量的时间序列分布、若虫进龄百分率和卵的累计孵化率,用 Rayleigh 密度函数Y=A·X·exp(-X²/2H²)描述各龄若虫存活率。然后将这些参数组建成褐飞虱田间种群数量预测模型,经用历史资料验证,结果模拟值与实查值基本一致。

关键词: Weibull, 分布函数, Rayleigh, 密度函数, 褐飞虱, 预测模型