Abstract: This paper dealt with the time series analysis for the long term prediction of population dynamics of Tryporyza incertulas(Walker).By the methods of stepwise regressive periodic analysis and stationary stochastes sequence,the following model is used: Y(t)～P(t)+S(t) Here,Y(t)is predicted value of population dynamics,P(t)is periodic term and S(t)is random term.The.better results have been obtained in forecasting practices.

Key words: Tryporyza incertulas, Prediction of population, dynamics, Time series analysis

摘要： 本文采用逐步回归周期分析和平稳随机序列分析的方法,把三化螟数量变化的时间序列分解为周期项和随机项,经叠加后用于中长期数量预测。从应用情况看,效果较好。

关键词: 三化螟, 数量预报, 时间序列分析法