Abstract: On the basis of the establishment of simulation model for analyzing the share of rice improvement in contribution of technological advance to rice yield increase, the contribution of rice genetic improvement, fertilizer input and management to rice yield increase in five provinces in China were analysed by using the established model. The result shows that, of the contribution of technological advance during 1985 to 1994, the average share of improved rice is 29.2%, fertilizer input 43.2% and management 27.6%. Among the five provinces, there are three major matches of above mentioned technological elements, which are fertilizer dominated, improved variety dominated and integrated fertilizer, improved variety and cropping management match, The rational measures for raising rice yield in future were discussed and suggested. In particular, the government needs to further increase the investment into the research of rice genetic improvement in order to maintain a higher share of rice improvement in contribution to rice yield growth, which is the most cost effective measure for enhancing yield. At the same time, much effort should be devoted to the improvement of integrated approach of fertilizer, improved variety and cropping management in order to improve the resource use efficiency of rice production.

Key words: rice, yield increases, improved varieties, technology transfer, fertilizer, management

摘要： 在建立水稻品种改良在增产中的科技贡献分析模型的基础上，计算了我国水稻生产过程中科技进步、品种改良、化肥投入和经营管理等措施引起的产量变化。结果表明，1985～1994年的10年间，在科技进步对产量增产的平均贡献中，品种改良占29.2%，化肥投入占43.2%，经营管理水平占27.6%。在水稻生产发展过程中，形成了3种水稻增产科技要素组合类型，即以化肥为主的要素组合类型、以良种为主的要素组合类型和综合管理型要素组合类型。在此基础上，提出了进一步提高我国水稻产量的合理途径。良种对增产的贡献是一种最为经济有效的增产因素之一，国家应进一步加强对该领域的投资和研究，以维持并提高良种科技进步对增产的贡献份额。同时，应通过品种改良、肥料投入和经营管理相结合的综合技术管理，提高水稻生长的资源利用效率。

关键词: 水稻, 产量增加, 改良品种, 技术转移, 肥料, 管理