关键词: 三化螟, 地统计学, 时间格局, 种群预测

Abstract: In order to comprehend temporal pattern of the larvae population of the yellow rice borer, Tryporyza incertulas, and provide valuable information for its forecast, the data series of the population for each generation and the over-(wintering) larvae from 1960 to 1990 in Dingcheng District, Changde City, Hunan Province, were analyzed by geostatistics. The data series of total number, the 1st generation, the 3rd generation and the over-wintering larvae year to year displayed rather better autocorrelation and prediction. The data series of generation to generation, the 2nd generation and the 4th (generation) year to year, however, demonstrated poor autocorrelation, especially for the 4th generation, with degree of (autocorrelation) being zero. The population dynamics of the yellow rice borer was obviously intermittent. A remarkable cycle of four generations in one year was observed in the population of generation to generation. Omitting the certain generation or (interposing) the over-wintering larvae in analysis of population dynamics only resulted in a less or slight change in (autocorrelation) of the whole data series of generation to generation. Crop system, food, climate and nature enemies, therefore, played more important roles in regulating the population dynamics than base number of the larvae. The basic (techniques) of geostatistics applied in analyzing temporal population dynamics were outlined.

Key words: Tryporyza incertulas, geostatistics, temporal patterns, population forecast