水稻高温热害模型研究及其在福建省的应用

doi:10.16819/j.1001-7216.2023.220604

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】通过研究高温对水稻产量形成的影响，构建水稻高温热害模型，旨在提高水稻高温热害的防御和灾损评估水平。【方法】选用福建省种植的4个代表性品种，分别于早稻开花期和灌浆期、中稻减数分裂期和开花期，设置不同温度水平T₁(35℃)、T₂(41℃)和高温胁迫持续天数D₁(3 d)、D₂(7 d)，以适宜环境条件为对照（CK），分析不同处理下水稻产量及其构成因素的变化，并据此构建高温热害对水稻产量影响的综合模型。根据近20年气象资料，利用模型对福建省四个水稻种植样点的产量进行灾损评估。【结果】早稻在开花期T₂D₂高温处理时，单株产量降幅最大，为60.8%；两个品种的结实率降幅在T₂D₂处理下可达60%。灌浆期高温对早稻单株产量影响较小，T₂D₂处理下为17.8%，两个品种结实率和千粒重降幅最大值分别为11.6%和9.0%。中稻两个品种受减数分裂期高温影响后，在T₂D₂处理下的单株产量降幅最大可达43.6%，每穗粒数下降为17.4%，结实率所受影响明显大于千粒重，降幅分别为30.8%和9.8%。中稻开花期T₂D₂高温处理对产量影响最大，单株产量降幅可达42.1%，结实率和千粒重受高温影响后降幅最大分别为37.0%和5.7%。根据项目组研发的水稻发育期模型和本研究结果确定了4个供试品种的遗传参数，构建了水稻关键发育期的高温累积度时和高温处理后灾损率之间的定量关系，进而分别构建了早稻和中稻的高温热害模型。对4个水稻种植样点进行灾损模拟，发现各地损失率和气象产量的时间变化规律正好相反，且中稻较早稻遭受高温危害更为严重。【结论】早稻开花期高温热害对水稻产量的影响大于灌浆期，中稻减数分裂期高温热害的影响比开花期严重。通过本研究确定的4个供试品种的遗传参数在代表性样点对生育期的模拟效果较好。构建的早稻和中稻高温热害模型对四个代表性样点的灾损模拟效果较理想。

关键词: 水稻, 关键发育期, 高温热害, 产量损失率, 模型

Abstract:

【Objective】By studying the effects of high temperature on rice yield formation, a simulation model of rice high temperature stress was developed, aiming to improve the prevention and disaster damage assessment level in rice under high temperature stress.【Method】In this experiment, four representative varieties planted in Fujian Province were selected, the temperature treatments T₁(35℃), T₂(41 ℃) and the duration of high temperature stress D₁(3 days) and D₂(7 days) were set respectively at flowering stage and grain-filling stage of early rice, and during meiosis stage and flowering stage of middle rice, while the suitable environmental conditions were used as the control (CK) to analyze the changes of rice yield and its constituent factors under different stress treatments. A comprehensive simulation model for the effects of high temperature stress on rice yield was established. Based on the historical climatic data of the past 20 years, the model was used to assess yield loss caused by disaster at four rice planting sites in Fujian Province.【Results】The yield per plant of early rice suffer a severest loss of 60.8% as affected by T₂D₂ treatment at the flowering stage. The seed setting rate of the two cultivars decreased by about 60% under T₂D₂ treatment. High temperature at the grain-filling stage had the lowest impact on the yield per plant of early rice, which was 17.8% under T₂D₂ treatment. The seed setting rate and 1000-grain weight of the two varieties had a maximum decrease of 11.6% and 9.0%, respectively. After being affected by high temperature at the meiosis stage, the yield per plant of middle rice decreased up to 43.6%, and the number of grains per panicle decreased by 17.4% under T₂D₂ treatment. The effect on seed setting rate was significantly greater than that of 1000-grain weight, with decreases of 30.8% and 9.8%, respectively. High temperature T₂D₂ treatment had the greatest effect on rice yield at flowering stage, and the yield per plant decreased by 42.1%, while the seed setting rate and 1000-grain weight decreased by 37.0% and 5.7%, respectively. According to the rice development period model developed by ourselves and the results of this experiment, the genetic parameters of the four varieties were determined, and the quantitative relationship between accumulated degree-hours of high temperature and the yield loss rate after various high temperature treatments was determined in the key development period of rice, and then the high temperature stress simulation model of early rice and middle rice were figured out respectively. The damage simulation of four rice planting sites showed that the temporal changes of the loss rate and meteorological yield was opposite, and the damage to middle rice was more serious than that of early rice.【Conclusion】The effect of high temperature stress on rice yield in early rice at the flowering stage was greater than that at the grain-filling stage. The effect of high temperature stress at the meiotic stage of middle rice was more serious than that at the flowering stage. The four sets of rice genetic parameters obtained in this experiment have good simulation effects on the growth period in the representative sample sites. The simulation results of high temperature stress for four representative sample sites observed by the high temperature stress simulation model of early rice and middle rice showed that the yield loss rate and the meteorological yield change corresponded well, which proves that the simulation effect of high temperature heat damage model is desirable.

Key words: rice, critical growth period, high temperature stress, yield loss rate, simulation model

林聃, 江敏, 苗波, 郭萌, 石春林. 水稻高温热害模型研究及其在福建省的应用[J]. 中国水稻科学, 2023, 37(3): 307-320.

LIN Dan, JIANG Min, MIAO Bo, GUO Meng, SHI Chunlin. Research on Simulation Model of High Temperature Stress on Rice and Its Application in Fujian Province[J]. Chinese Journal OF Rice Science, 2023, 37(3): 307-320.

图/表 17

表1 生育期高温处理日期

Table 1. High temperature treatment date of each growth period.

生育期 Growth period	持续天数DT/d	高温处理时期（月-日） High temperature treatment duration(Month-Day)
生育期 Growth period	持续天数DT/d	榕盛优1131 Rongshengyou 1131	T78优2155 T78 You 2155	禾两优676 Heliangyou 676	Ⅱ优3301 ⅡYou 3301
减数分裂期Meiosis stage	3	/	/	8-12—8-14	8-12—8-14
	7	/	/	8-12—8-18	8-12—8-18
开花期Flowering stage	3	7-13—7-15	7-15—7-17	8-21—8-23	8-24—8-26
	7	7-13—7-19	7-15—7-21	8-21—8-27	8-24—8-30
灌浆期Grain-filling stage	3	7-23—7-25	7-25—7-27	/	/
	7	7-23—7-29	7-25—7-31	/	/

图1 水稻高温处理时期自然环境日最高温度与日平均温度变化

Fig. 1. Changes of daily maximum temperature and daily mean temperature in natural environment during high temperature treatment.

表2 开花期高温对早稻产量及其构成因素的影响

Table 2. Effects of high temperature on grain yield and its components of early rice at flowering stage.

品种 Variety	处理 Treatment	单株产量 Yield per plant / g	单株穗数 Panicle number per plant	穗粒数 Grain number per panicle	结实率 Seed setting rate /%	千粒重 1000-grain weight /g
榕盛优1131 Rongshengyou 1131	CK	39.0±3.1 a	11.7±0.6 a	128.7±4.2 a	88.9±1.8 a	29.3±0.9 a
	T₁D₁	36.3±1.4 a	11.7±0.6 a	129.3±8.1 a	82.8±3.0 b	29.2±0.3 a
	T₂D₁	21.8±2.4 c	12.3±0.6 a	130.0±5.0 a	47.2±1.8 d	28.7±0.1 a
	T₁D₂	30.5±2.8 b	12.0±1.0 a	147.0±8.5 a	59.5±4.1 c	29.1±0.7 a
	T₂D₂	16.9±2.1 d	13.0±1.0 a	152.3±25.0 a	31.6±4.2 e	27.0±0.8 b
T78优2155 T78 you 2155	CK	43.5±0.4 a	12.0±1.0 a	154.0±13.5 a	92.4±1.2 a	25.6±0.2 a
	T₁D₁	39.9±1.5 b	11.7±1.2 a	152.7±13.7 a	88.3±4.2 a	25.5±0.1 a
	T₂D₁	25.5±0.9 d	12.0±2.0 a	160.3±20.5 a	55.0±1.5 c	25.1±0.1 a
	T₁D₂	33.3±0.6 c	11.3±1.5 a	157.3±12.2 a	74.0±4.6 b	25.4±0.1 a
	T₂D₂	17.1±1.4 e	12.3±0.6 a	156.7±5.5 a	38.2±1.5 d	23.1±0.7 b

图2 早稻相对结实率和相对千粒重随高温累积度时的变化

Fig. 2. Changes of relative seed setting rate and relative 1000-grain weight of early rice with accumulated degree-hours of high temperature.

表3 早稻相对结实率和相对千粒重随高温累积度时变化的拟合系数及R2值

Table 3. Fitting coefficients and R2 values of relative seed setting rate(RSSR) and relative 1000-grain weight(RTGW) of early rice as a function of the cumulative degree of high temperature-period hour.

品种 Variety	产量构成因素 Yield component	系数及R²值 Coefficients and R²	生育期Growth period
品种 Variety	产量构成因素 Yield component	系数及R²值 Coefficients and R²	开花期Flowering stage	灌浆期Grain-filling stage
榕盛优1131 Rongshengyou 1131	相对结实率 RSSR	A₁	0.309 19	0.884 49
		x₀	124.152 53	141.462 46
		p	3.120 29	80.687 67
		R²	0.987 93	0.9753
	相对千粒重 RTGW	A₁	0.923 08	0.909 66
		x₀	157.457 88	119.082 35
		p	23.755 46	3.007 38
		R²	0.991 17	0.962 87
T78优2155 T78 you 2155	相对结实率 RSSR	A₁	0.1723	143.553 09
		x₀	231.633 21	32.650 81
		p	2.158 66	0.983 81
		R²	0.997 88	0.989 53
	相对千粒重 RTGW	A₁	0.903 09	0.738 54
		x₀	160.394 05	532.208 03
		p	20.170 34	1.558 12
		R²	0.938 31	0.983 97

表4 灌浆期高温对早稻产量及其构成因素的影响

Table 4. Effects of high temperature at grain-filling stage on yield and its components of early rice.

品种 Variety	处理 Treatment	单株产量 Yield per plant / g	穗数 Panicle number	穗粒数 Grain number per panicle	结实率 Seed setting rate /%	千粒重 1000-grain weight /g
榕盛优1131 Rongshengyou 1131	CK	39.1±3.1 a	11.7±0.6 a	128.7±4.2 a	88.9±1.8 a	29.3±0.9 a
	T₁D₁	38.2±0.8 a	12.0±2.0 a	127.7±18.0 a	87.6±3.1 ab	28.9±0.1 ab
	T₂D₁	34.8±0.6b	13.0±1.0 a	125.3±17.0 a	78.7±3.5 b	27.3±0.2 c
	T₁D₂	37.7±0.9 a	11.7±1.5 a	134.0±16.1 a	85.8±0.6 ab	28.4±0.4 b
	T₂D₂	33.7±1.0 b	12.0±1.0 a	135.0±19.1 a	78.6±7.8 b	26.7±0.2 c
T78优2155 T78 you 2155	CK	43.5±0.4 a	12.0±1.0 a	154.0±13.5 a	92.4±1.2 a	25.6±0.2 a
	T₁D₁	41.0±1.9 b	12.0±0.0 a	146.3±3.1 a	92.0±2.4 a	25.4±0.2 a
	T₂D₁	37.4±0.9 cd	12.3±1.5 a	141.7±11.8 a	89.6±1.7 a	24.1±0.6 b
	T₁D₂	38.6±0.9 c	11.7±1.2 a	144.7±9.0 a	91.4±1.6 a	25.1±0.4 a
	T₂D₂	35.7±0.8 d	12.0±0.9 a	144.7±9.0 a	89.0±9.2 a	23.3±0.1c

图3 早稻相对结实率和相对千粒重随高温累积度时的变化

Fig. 3. Changes of relative seed-setting rate and 1000-grain weight of early rice with accumulated degree-hours of high temperature.

表5 减数分裂期高温对中稻产量及其构成因素的影响

Table 5. Effects of high temperature during meiosis on yield and its components of middle rice.

品种 Variety	处理 Treatment	单株产量 Yield per plant / g	穗数 Panicle number	穗粒数 Grain number per panicle	结实率 Seed setting rate /%	千粒重 1000-grain weight /g
Ⅱ优3301 ⅡYou3301	CK	39.6±0.8 a	10.3±0.6 a	178.0±4.4 a	79.4±3.6 a	27.4±0.7 a
	T₁D₁	37.3±1.0 b	10.3±0.6 a	172.7±4.5 a	77.4±2.9 a	27.1±0.7 ab
	T₂D₁	26.4±0.8 d	10.3±1.2 a	153.3±11.4 b	64.9±4.1 b	25.9±1.0 ab
	T₁D₂	30.0±1.6 c	10.0±1.0 a	168.3±7.6 a	67.7±3.2 b	26.4±1.4 ab
	T₂D₂	23.3±1.0 e	10.7±0.6 a	151.0±7.9 b	58.1±3.6 c	24.9±1.4 b
禾两优676 Heliangyou676	CK	41.9±2.5 a	10.3±0.6 a	178.7±3.8 a	80.9±2.4 a	28.1±0.5 a
	T₁D₁	38.5±2.4 a	10.7±0.6 a	174.0±5.3 ab	74.3±2.6 b	27.9±0.5 ab
	T₂D₁	28.0±1.9 c	11.3±0.6 a	149.4±5.5 c	62.9±1.8 c	26.2±0.9 cd
	T₁D₂	32.2±1.4 b	11.0±0.0 a	166.0±10.0 b	65.6±1.2 c	26.9±0.5 bc
	T₂D₂	23.6±1.4 d	11.3±0.6 a	147.7±3.2 c	56.0±5.6 d	25.3±0.6 d

图4 中稻相对穗粒数、相对结实率和相对千粒重随高温累积度时的变化

Fig. 4. Changes of grain number per panicle, seed setting rate and 1000-grain weight of medium rice with accumulated degree-hours of high temperature.

表6 中稻相对穗粒数、相对结实率和相对千粒重随高温累积度时变化的拟合系数及R2值

Table 6. Fitting coefficients and R2 values of relative grain number per panicle, relative seed setting rate and relative 1000-grain weight of middle rice with accumulated degree-hours of high temperature.

品种 Variety	产量构成因素 Yield component	拟合系数及R²值 Fitting coefficients and R²	生育期Growth period
品种 Variety	产量构成因素 Yield component	拟合系数及R²值 Fitting coefficients and R²	减数分裂期Meiosis stage	开花期Flowering stage
Ⅱ优3301 ⅡYou 3301	相对穗粒数 RGN	A₁	0.791 63	/
		x₀	190.109 58	/
		p	1.6427	/
		R²	0.911 88	/
	相对结实率 RGN	A₁	0.717 58	0.633 19
		x₀	131.3975	86.169 17
		p	3.068 56	2.030 04
		R²	0.996 26	0.997 49
	相对千粒重 RTGW	A₁	0.896 71	0.9426
		x₀	159.3183	147.443 26
		p	2.270 27	24.822 37
		R²	0.981 53	0.992 88
禾两优676 Heliangyou 676	相对穗粒数 RGN	A₁	0.823 09	/
		x₀	101.515 02	/
		p	3.3079	/
		R²	0.966 49	/
	相对结实率 RGN	A₁	0.617 84	0.493 48
		x₀	135.960 37	174.413 57
		p	1.643 85	1.441 28
		R²	0.989 55	0.987 03
	相对千粒重 RTGW	A₁	0.896 25	0.948 31
		x₀	148.222 61	147.529 44
		p	3.453 69	44.2462
		R²	0.987 73	1

表7 开花期高温对中稻产量及其构成因素的影响

Table 7. Effects of high temperature during meiosis on yield and its components of middle rice.

品种 Variety	处理 Treatment	单株产量 Yield per plant / g	穗数 Panicle number	穗粒数 Grain number per panicle	结实率 Seed setting rate /%	千粒重 1000-grain weight /g
Ⅱ优3301 ⅡYou 3301	CK	39.9±0.8 a	10.3±0.6 a	178.0±4.4 a	79.4±3.6 a	27.4±0.7 a
	T₁D₁	33.8±4.0 b	10.7±1.2 a	168.0±19.1 a	69.7±5.1 b	27.2±0.4 a
	T₂D₁	27.3±0.6 c	10.0±0.0 a	181.3±2.5 a	57.0±1.3 c	26.4±0.2 ab
	T₁D₂	26.6±1.3 c	9.7±0.6 a	174.3±3.2 a	58.5±1.1 c	27.0±0.5 a
	T₂D₂	26.5±1.5 c	10.7±0.6 a	185.7±5.5 a	52.0±2.7 c	25.8±0.1 b
禾两优676 Heliangyou 676	CK	41.9±2.5 a	10.3±0.6 a	178.7±3.8 a	80.9±2.4 a	28.1±0.5 a
	T₁D₁	35.5±0.4 b	10.7±0.6 a	162.7±15.7 a	73.4±4.8 b	28.1±0.1 a
	T₂D₁	27.4±1.3 d	10.7±1.5 a	174.3±10.8 a	55.4±6.4 d	27.1±0.9 ab
	T₁D₂	30.2±0.6 c	10.3±2.1 a	166.3±24.3 a	63.9±1.3 c	27.9±0.5 ab
	T₂D₂	24.2±0.7 e	11.0±1.7 a	164.7±15.5 a	51.0±3.3 d	26.6±1.2 b

图5 中稻相对结实率和相对千粒重随高温累积度时的变化

Fig. 5. Changes of relative seed setting rate and relative 1000-grain weight of middle rice with accumulated degree-hours of high temperature.

表8 早稻和中稻不同发育期的高温热害损失率

Table 8. Heat-induced yield loss rate of early rice and middle rice at different developmental phases.

品种 Variety	生育期 Growth period	损失率 Loss rate
早稻 Early rice	开花期 Flowering stage	={1―{0.240745+0.759255/[1+( $x$ /177.8929)^2.639475]}×{0.913085+0.086915/[1+( $x$ /158.926)^21.9629]}}×100%
早稻 Early rice	灌浆期 Grain-filling stage	={1―{0.92368+0.07632/[1+( $x$ /142.5078)^56.66924]}×{0.8241+0.1759[1+( $x$ /325.6452)^2.28275]}}×100%
中稻 Middle rice	减数分裂期 Meiosis stage	={1―{0.80736+0.19264/[1+( $x$ /145.8123)^2.4753]}×{0.66771+0.33229/[1+( $x$ /133.6789)^2.356205]} ×{0.89648+0.10352/[1+( $x$ /153.7705)^2.86198]}}×100%
中稻 Middle rice	开花期 Flowering stage	={1―{0.563335+0.436665/[1+( $x$ /130.2914) ^1.73566]}×{0.945455+0.054545/[1+( $x$ /147.4864)^34.53429]}}×100%

表8 早稻和中稻不同发育期的高温热害损失率

Table 8. Heat-induced yield loss rate of early rice and middle rice at different developmental phases.

品种 Variety	生育期 Growth period	损失率 Loss rate
早稻 Early rice	开花期 Flowering stage	={1―{0.240745+0.759255/[1+( $x$ /177.8929)^2.639475]}×{0.913085+0.086915/[1+( $x$ /158.926)^21.9629]}}×100%
早稻 Early rice	灌浆期 Grain-filling stage	={1―{0.92368+0.07632/[1+( $x$ /142.5078)^56.66924]}×{0.8241+0.1759[1+( $x$ /325.6452)^2.28275]}}×100%
中稻 Middle rice	减数分裂期 Meiosis stage	={1―{0.80736+0.19264/[1+( $x$ /145.8123)^2.4753]}×{0.66771+0.33229/[1+( $x$ /133.6789)^2.356205]} ×{0.89648+0.10352/[1+( $x$ /153.7705)^2.86198]}}×100%
中稻 Middle rice	开花期 Flowering stage	={1―{0.563335+0.436665/[1+( $x$ /130.2914) ^1.73566]}×{0.945455+0.054545/[1+( $x$ /147.4864)^34.53429]}}×100%

表9 福建省4个水稻品种的发育期品种参数

Table 9. Variety parameters of four rice varieties during developmental phase in Fujian Province.

品种参数 Varieties of parameter	品种Variety
品种参数 Varieties of parameter	榕盛优1131 Rongshengyou 1131	T78优2155 T78 you 2155	Ⅱ优3301 ⅡYou 3301	禾两优676 Heliangyou 676
P₁	92.04	92.04	81.98	81.98
P₂	1392.35	1392.35	1387.47	1387.47
P₃	904.12	925.56	1208.82	1184.76
P₄	709.08	732.45	976.79	948.42

图6 水稻全生育期时长模拟值与观测值对比 **表示在0.01统计水平上显著。

Fig. 6. Comparison between simulated and observed values of rice growth period. **Significant at 0.01 probability level.

图7 4个代表性样点近20年水稻单产变化趋势

Fig. 7. Trends of rice yield at four representative sites in the recent 20 years.

图8 4个代表性样点近20年水稻高温热害损失率和气象产量的变化

Fig. 8. Heat-induced yield loss rate and meteorological yield in four representative sites in recent 20 years.

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