中国居民中高端大米需求弹性估算与市场潜力研究——以长三角市场为例

doi:10.16819/j.1001-7216.2023.220312

中国水稻科学 ›› 2023, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 102-112.DOI: 10.16819/j.1001-7216.2023.220312

• 研究报告 • 上一篇

中国居民中高端大米需求弹性估算与市场潜力研究——以长三角市场为例

陈品¹^,², 刘家成³(), 赵小松⁴

¹南京农业大学公共管理学院，南京 210095
²常州工学院经济与管理学院，江苏常州 213032
³南京财经大学财政与税务学院，南京 210023
⁴南京农业大学经济管理学院/金善宝农业现代化发展研究院，南京 210095

收稿日期:2022-03-29 修回日期:2022-06-27 出版日期:2023-01-10 发布日期:2023-01-11
通讯作者: 刘家成
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20＆ZD094);国家自然科学基金资助项目(72203026);江苏省中国工程科技发展战略江苏研究院重大战略咨询项目(JS2019ZD01);江苏省社科基金重大项目(21ZD004);国家自然科学基金资助项目(72103088);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD);江苏省高校现代粮食流通与安全协同创新中心资助项目。

Demand Elasticity Estimation and Market Potential of Middle and High-end Rice in China: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Market

CHEN Pin¹^,², LIU Jiacheng³(), ZHAO Xiaosong⁴

¹College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
²School of Economics and Management, Changzhou Institution of Technology, Changzhou 213032, China
³School of Public Finance and Taxation, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210023, China
⁴College of Economics and Management/Jin Shanbao Institute for Agricultural & Rural Development, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China

Received:2022-03-29 Revised:2022-06-27 Online:2023-01-10 Published:2023-01-11
Contact: LIU Jiacheng

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的主粮结构升级需求压力随着居民收入水平的提高和消费观念的变化不断增大，长三角地区作为我国经济最发达地区和重要的粮食主销区，研判其主粮消费结构变化有助于判断未来全国大米需求结构的变化趋势。方法以主粮大米为例，利用大型连锁超市销售数据，采用计量经济模型对不同档次大米需求弹性进行了估计，并预测了长三角地区未来近20年中高端大米的市场消费潜力。结果长三角地区大米消费市场已趋稳定，消费结构逐渐由普通大米向中高端大米转变，预计到2040年，长三角地区中高端大米市场需求将达到1231×10⁴~2463×10⁴t，市场价值将达到1085亿~2302亿元。结论应针对稻米中高端需求的倾向，做好顶层设计，在已有市场及未来市场发展空间的基础上，科学确定区域布局、发展方向和产业规模，推进优化产品结构、品种结构、经营结构，不断提升优质绿色稻米的比重，加大对高端稻米产业发展的保护。

关键词: 消费升级, 中高端大米, 需求弹性, 市场预测, 消费趋势

Abstract:

【Objective】 With the rising income level of residents and the change of consumption concept, we are facing an increasing demand for the upgrading of staple grain mix. The Yangtze River Delta region, the most developed area and an important grain consumer in China, epitomizes the change of staple grain consumption mix in the future. 【Method】 Here, taking rice as an example, we estimated the demand elasticity of different grades of rice by econometric model using the sales data of large chain supermarkets, and predicted the market consumption potential of high-end rice in the Yangtze River Delta region in the next 20 years. 【Result】 The rice consumption market in the Yangtze River Delta region has become stable, and the consumption mix has gradually changed from ordinary rice to middle and high-end rice. It is expected that the demand for middle and high-end rice will reach 1231×10⁴－2463×10⁴t, and the market value will reach 108.5－230.2 billion Yuan by 2040. 【Conclusion】 Taking into consideration the trend of middle and high-end demand for rice, we should do a good job in top-level design, scientifically figure out the regional layout, development direction and industrial scale on the basis of the existing market and future market, optimize the mixes of product, variety and upgrade operation practices, constantly increase the proportion of high-quality green rice, and intensify the protection of high-end rice industry development.

Key words: consumption upgrade, middle and high-end rice, demand elasticity, market forecast, consumption trend

陈品, 刘家成, 赵小松. 中国居民中高端大米需求弹性估算与市场潜力研究——以长三角市场为例[J]. 中国水稻科学, 2023, 37(1): 102-112.

CHEN Pin, LIU Jiacheng, ZHAO Xiaosong. Demand Elasticity Estimation and Market Potential of Middle and High-end Rice in China: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Market[J]. Chinese Journal OF Rice Science, 2023, 37(1): 102-112.

图/表 10

参考文献 20

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年份 Year	档次 Grade	普通 Ordinary	中端 Midle end	高端 High end	合计 Total
2015	销售量Sales volume/t	15227	12210	879	28316
	占比Percentage/%	53.8	43.1	3.1	-
	增长率Increase/%	-	-	-	-
2016	销售量Sales volume/t	14825	13505	1127	29458
	占比Percentage/%	50.3	45.8	3.8	-
	增长率Increase/%	−2.6	10.6	28.2	4.0
2017	销售量Sales volume/t	11382	14999	1471	27852
	占比Percentage/%	40.9	53.9	5.3	-
	增长率Increase/%	−23.2	11.1	30.5	−5.5
2018	销售量Sales volume/t	11045	16381	1914	29341
	占比Percentage/%	37.6	55.8	6.5	-
	增长率Increase/%	−3.0	9.2	30.1	5.3

年份 Year	档次 Grade	普通 Ordinary	中端 Midle end	高端 High end	合计 Total
2015	销售量Sales volume/t	15227	12210	879	28316
	占比Percentage/%	53.8	43.1	3.1	-
	增长率Increase/%	-	-	-	-
2016	销售量Sales volume/t	14825	13505	1127	29458
	占比Percentage/%	50.3	45.8	3.8	-
	增长率Increase/%	−2.6	10.6	28.2	4.0
2017	销售量Sales volume/t	11382	14999	1471	27852
	占比Percentage/%	40.9	53.9	5.3	-
	增长率Increase/%	−23.2	11.1	30.5	−5.5
2018	销售量Sales volume/t	11045	16381	1914	29341
	占比Percentage/%	37.6	55.8	6.5	-
	增长率Increase/%	−3.0	9.2	30.1	5.3

年份 Year	档次 Grade	普通 Ordinary	中端 Midle end	高端 High end	合计 Total
2015	销售额Sales/万元	6474	7734	1216	15424
	占比Percentage/%	42	50.1	7.9	-
	增长率Increase/%	-	-	-	-
2016	销售额Sales/万元	6113	8534	1550	16198
	占比Percentage/%	37.7	52.7	9.6	-
	增长率Increase/%	−5.6	10.4	27.5	5.0
2017	销售额Sales/万元	4984	9803	2098	16885
	占比Percentage/%	29.5	58.1	12.4	-
	增长率Increase/%	−18.5	14.9	35.3	4.2
2018	销售额Sales/万元	4785	10170	2842	17797
	占比Percentage/%	26.9	57.1	16	-
	增长率Increase/%	−4.0	3.7	35.5	5.4

年份 Year	档次 Grade	普通 Ordinary	中端 Midle end	高端 High end	合计 Total
2015	销售额Sales/万元	6474	7734	1216	15424
	占比Percentage/%	42	50.1	7.9	-
	增长率Increase/%	-	-	-	-
2016	销售额Sales/万元	6113	8534	1550	16198
	占比Percentage/%	37.7	52.7	9.6	-
	增长率Increase/%	−5.6	10.4	27.5	5.0
2017	销售额Sales/万元	4984	9803	2098	16885
	占比Percentage/%	29.5	58.1	12.4	-
	增长率Increase/%	−18.5	14.9	35.3	4.2
2018	销售额Sales/万元	4785	10170	2842	17797
	占比Percentage/%	26.9	57.1	16	-
	增长率Increase/%	−4.0	3.7	35.5	5.4

档次 Grade	大米品牌名称 Brand of rice	单价Price per unit
档次 Grade	大米品牌名称 Brand of rice	2015	2016	2017	2018
普通Ordinary	东海明珠苏北大米Donghaimingzhu Subei rice	4.47	4.50	4.62	4.05
普通Ordinary	三特苏垦大米Sante Suken rice	4.93	5.06	5.14	5.10
中端Midle end	福临门东北优质大米Fulinmen Northeast quality rice	6.95	7.49	7.49	7.71
中端Midle end	福临门酥软香大米Fulinmen crispy soft fragrant rice	6.72	6.68	6.80	6.72
高端High end	福临门稻花香米Fulinmen rice flower fragrant rice	16.51	15.69	17.41	-
高端High end	福临门泰国茉莉香米Fulinmen Thai jasmine rice	17.04	16.73	16.88	16.08

中国居民中高端大米需求弹性估算与市场潜力研究——以长三角市场为例

Demand Elasticity Estimation and Market Potential of Middle and High-end Rice in China: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Market

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Metrics

年份 Year	大中城市超市集市均价 Average price in supermarkets and markets in medium and large cities		全国零售/批发价 National retail/wholesale prices			最低收购价 Minimum purchase price
年份 Year	二级粳米 Second grade japonica rice	二级晚籼米 Second grade late indica rice	大米零售 Retail rice	粳米批发 Wholesale Japonica rice	籼米批发 Wholesale Indica rice	早籼稻 Early indica rice	中晚籼稻 Middle-late indica rice	粳稻 Japonica rice
2015	5.58	5.18	6.48	-	-	2.70	2.76	3.10
2016	5.62	5.24	6.52	5.00	4.43	2.66	2.76	3.10
2017	5.68	5.32	6.54	5.14	4.53	2.60	2.72	3.00
2018	5.74	5.36	6.54	5.16	4.58	2.40	2.52	2.60
2019	5.76	5.46	6.58	5.10	4.57	2.40	2.52	2.60
2020	5.78	5.46	6.59	5.08	4.61	2.42	2.54	2.60

变量 Variate	各档次大米销售量的对数 Logarithm of rice sales of each grade			各档次大米销售额的对数 Logarithm of sales of each grade of rice
变量 Variate	普通 Ordinary	中端 Middle end	高端 High end	普通 Ordinary	中端 Middle end	高端 High end
城镇居民人均可支配收入（对数）	−2.452***	1.763***	4.321***	−2.176***	1.783***	4.270***
Per capita urban disposable income (logarithm)	(−13.04)	(12.53)	(16.82)	(−12.14)	(12.59)	(17.07)
普通大米单价（对数）	−3.027***	1.056**	0.726	−2.731***	1.303***	0.493
Unit price of ordinary rice (logarithm)	(−5.47)	(2.55)	(0.96)	(−5.18)	(3.12)	(0.67)
中端大米单价（对数）	−0.226	−1.025	−1.188	0.236	−0.456	−0.719
Unit price of middle end rice (logarithm)	(−0.26)	(−1.58)	(−1.00)	(0.29)	(−0.70)	(−0.62)
高端大米单价（对数）	−0.314	0.0644	−0.966*	−0.209	0.0100	−0.498
Unit price of high-end rice (logarithm)	(−0.81)	(0.22)	(−1.83)	(−0.57)	(0.03)	(−0.97)
城镇常住人口数（对数）	0.0185	0.285	1.218***	0.0554	0.265	1.222***
Number of permanent urban residents (logarithm)	(0.06)	(1.22)	(2.83)	(0.19)	(1.13)	(2.95)
常数项	43.20***	−7.468***	−37.07***	40.02***	−7.056***	−35.71***
Constant term	(13.15)	(−3.04)	(−8.26)	(12.78)	(−2.85)	(−8.17)
观测值Observed value	271	271	271	271	271	271
F值 F value	28.28***	41.07***	18.53***	30.28***	40.75***	19.60***
Hausman检验值 Hausman test value	64.13***	53.25***	85.28***	59.14***	54.18***	86.70***
R²	0.52	0.51	0.64	0.49	0.50	0.64

地区 Region	档次 Grade	低方案Low-income growth plan			高方案High-income growth plan
地区 Region	档次 Grade	2025	2030	2040	2025	2030	2040
江苏Jiangsu	中端Middle end	16.00	21.15	35.60	32.56	51.87	127.02
江苏Jiangsu	高端High end	39.30	51.73	86.51	78.88	125.11	304.91
上海Shanghai	中端Middle end	15,31	20.40	34.69	31.88	51.12	126.11
上海Shanghai	高端High end	36.58	48.73	82.85	76.16	122.11	301.26
杭州Hangzhou	中端Middle end	16.48	21.76	36.55	33.05	52.48	127.98
杭州Hangzhou	高端High end	41.24	54.18	90.31	80.82	127.56	308.72
合肥Hefei	中端Middle end	16.52	21.82	36.65	33.09	52.54	128.07
合肥Hefei	高端High end	41.41	54.40	90.70	80.99	127.79	309.11

地区 Region	档次 Grade	低方案Low-income growth plan			高方案High-income growth plan
地区 Region	档次 Grade	2025	2030	2040	2025	2030	2040
江苏Jiangsu	中端Middle end	505	592	662	587	810	1211
	高端High end	81	114	141	117	220	396
	合计Total	586	706	803	704	1030	1607
上海Shanghai	中端Middle end	152	177	198	177	243	364
	高端High end	24	33	41	35	65	117
	合计Total	176	210	239	212	308	481
杭州Hangzhou	中端Middle end	66	77	87	76	106	158
	高端High end	11	15	19	15	29	52
	合计Total	76	92	106	92	135	210
合肥Hefei	中端Middle end	52	61	68	60	83	124
	高端High end	8	12	15	12	23	41
	合计Total	60	73	83	72	106	165
总计Total	中端Middle end	775	907	1015	900	1242	1857
	高端High end	124	174	216	179	337	606
	合计Total	898	1081	1231	1080	1579	2463

地区 Region	档次 Grade	低方案Low-income growth plan			高方案High-income growth plan
地区 Region	档次 Grade	2025	2030	2040	2025	2030	2040
江苏Jiangsu	中端Middle end	505	592	662	587	810	1211
	高端High end	81	114	141	117	220	396
	合计Total	586	706	803	704	1030	1607
上海Shanghai	中端Middle end	152	177	198	177	243	364
	高端High end	24	33	41	35	65	117
	合计Total	176	210	239	212	308	481
杭州Hangzhou	中端Middle end	66	77	87	76	106	158
	高端High end	11	15	19	15	29	52
	合计Total	76	92	106	92	135	210
合肥Hefei	中端Middle end	52	61	68	60	83	124
	高端High end	8	12	15	12	23	41
	合计Total	60	73	83	72	106	165
总计Total	中端Middle end	775	907	1015	900	1242	1857
	高端High end	124	174	216	179	337	606
	合计Total	898	1081	1231	1080	1579	2463

地区 Region	档次 Grade	低方案Low-income growth plan			高方案High-income growth plan
地区 Region	档次 Grade	2025	2030	2040	2025	2030	2040
江苏Jiangsu	中端Middle end	379	444	497	440	608	908
	高端High end	122	171	212	176	330	594
	合计Total	500	615	708	616	938	1502
上海Shanghai	中端Middle end	114	133	149	133	183	273
	高端High end	36	50	62	53	98	176
	合计Total	150	182	210	185	280	449
杭州Hangzhou	中端Middle end	50	58	65	57	80	119
	高端High end	17	23	29	23	44	78
	合计Total	66	80	94	80	123	197
合肥Hefei	中端Middle end	39	46	51	45	62	93
	高端High end	12	18	23	18	35	62
	合计Total	51	64	74	63	97	155
总计Total	中端Middle end	581	680	761	675	932	1393
	高端High end	186	261	324	269	506	909
	合计Total	767	941	1085	944	1437	2302

地区 Region	档次 Grade	低方案Low-income growth plan			高方案High-income growth plan
地区 Region	档次 Grade	2025	2030	2040	2025	2030	2040
江苏Jiangsu	中端Middle end	379	444	497	440	608	908
	高端High end	122	171	212	176	330	594
	合计Total	500	615	708	616	938	1502
上海Shanghai	中端Middle end	114	133	149	133	183	273
	高端High end	36	50	62	53	98	176
	合计Total	150	182	210	185	280	449
杭州Hangzhou	中端Middle end	50	58	65	57	80	119
	高端High end	17	23	29	23	44	78
	合计Total	66	80	94	80	123	197
合肥Hefei	中端Middle end	39	46	51	45	62	93
	高端High end	12	18	23	18	35	62
	合计Total	51	64	74	63	97	155
总计Total	中端Middle end	581	680	761	675	932	1393
	高端High end	186	261	324	269	506	909
	合计Total	767	941	1085	944	1437	2302